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Tracking poll vs. election results

 

BY VOICE STAFF

The Voice tabulated its first mayoral and Regional Councillor poll on August 5, waited a month to do so again on September 3, and then conducted weekly polls from then on.

The graphs below show comparisons between predicted and actual results, and the mayoral vote by ward.

Marvin Junkin was always the heavy favourite for mayor. In the end he drew more votes than his two challengers combined.

For Regional Council, Jim Hagar and David Augustyn polled last and second to last from the beginning. Interestingly, if the election had been determined only by early polling, which concluded on October 15, before the last issue of the Voice prior to the election was printed, Baty would have won by 5% over Huson. Augustyn would still have come third and Hagar fourth.

For Town Council, the poll accurately identified the three top finishers in each ward, and in 5 out of 6 races also correctly predicted their relative rankings.

Mayoral preference by ward fell along arguably predictable lines. Farmer Marvin Junkin overwhelmingly dominated Pelham’s largest and most rural ward, Ward 1, taking 7 of every 10 votes. In rural-suburban-mixed Ward 2, Junkin still held on for an absolute majority. But by Ward 3, Pelham’s most densely populated by area, Gary Accursi took nearly a third of the vote while Carla Baxter nabbed a quarter. Junkin was still first past the post, however, at 46%.

Pelham’s voter turnout was 50.44%, the highest in at least 30 years, and the second-highest in the Region after Niagara-on-the-Lake’s 58.74%.

All candidates who won on election day were also leading at the end of early voting on October 15—except Diana Huson, who ended up beating incumbent Regional Councillor Brian Baty.

Approximately 25% of votes came in early polling.

In raw numbers, the most votes went to Nancy Beamer (4019), Marvin Junkin (3975), and Diana Huson (2817). On council it was Ron Kore (1947), Lisa Haun (1560) and Bob Hildebrandt (1213).

 

All figures in all results are percentages rounded to the nearest whole.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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